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Of course, tension in the Middle East has long been a source of concern, and oil traders have pricing in this “geopolitical premium� for years. Analysts at Commerzbank sternly call rivals’ predictions of an oil price rise to $150 “unfounded scare-mongering�. While acknowledging that a “black swan� event – such as war in Iran – could push the oil price to that level or higher, they see these risks as no more likely than a month ago.
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